Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake

Polymarket21¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO79¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 22

Forecast updated

Jul 11 forecast

Qatar will almost certainly not host, because senior US and Iranian delegations already convened in Muscat, Oman on July 11 for the next qualifying meeting.

Delegations led by Vance and Araghchi are in Muscat for talks, directly triggering the NO criteria.

Points to NO

Oman arrivals trigger NO condition
VP Vance and FM Araghchi arrived Muscat July 11.
Market lag on July 11 news
18.5 percent price predates full confirmation of Muscat arrivals.

Points to YES

Iranian walkout risk remains
Fars News reported Iran rejects negotiations until US retreats.

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