Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
The direct Israel-Iran ceasefire will very likely hold through July 25 because the bilateral front has stayed structurally paused since June 24.
The direct Israel-Iran front remains paused with high confidence through July 19 (E1, E2, E3, D1). Regional escalation is actively occurring but is directed elsewhere—US-Iran strikes, Iran’s attacks on regional states, and Israel’s Lebanon/Gaza operations—absorbing escalation energy and reducing the strategic incentive for either side to reopen a direct front in a six-day window. The final forecast therefore stays near the observed state, adjusted downward only for tail-risk rapid strategic shifts, yielding ~94%.
- Confirmed absence of direct strikes from July 16-19 with multiple independent sources (E1, D1).E1, D1
- Regional violence is channeled through US-Iran and proxy fronts, not direct Israel-Iran (E2, E3, E4).Evidence
- Short remaining horizon (6 days) with reversible but stable state persistence and high current satisfaction (p=0.96).Evidence
- Active multi-front conflict and US-Iran escalation create tail risk of miscalculation or preemptive action (E5).Evidence
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