Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+46%$100 paper stake
Polymarket66¢ → 96¢
Our position · YES66¢ → 96¢
Signal endedAug 28
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 21 forecast
School-driven weekday slowing leaves room below $900 million after $800 million was cleared, so an in-range August 31 total is likely.
The reported total has already cleared the bracket’s lower bound, making the $900 million ceiling the only meaningful obstacle. The film remains exceptionally strong and widely shown, but weekly declines near half, school reopenings, and growing competition should slow its late-August accumulation. That favors an in-range finish while leaving meaningful uncertainty that resilient weekend demand carries it over the ceiling.
Points to YES
- Clearing the lower bound early eliminates the risk of falling short and leaves only the upper boundary in question.On August 20, the film earned $5,468,937 and reached a 21-day domestic total of $815,901,026.
- School reopenings should suppress the remaining weekdays, slowing the film before it can exhaust its room below the ceiling.On August 16, Screendollars reported that half of U.S. K–12 students would have returned by August 17 and most would return by August 24, sharply reducing weekday business.
- The expected fourth-weekend pace leaves a plausible path to remain below $900 million through the deadline.An August 21 analysis projected a $40 million fourth weekend and a cumulative domestic total of about $856 million by August 23.
Points to NO
- The film’s unusually broad theater footprint can sustain enough late-run volume to threaten the ceiling despite declining daily sales.On August 21, the film remained the widest North American release in 4,006 theaters after losing 533 locations.
- Run-total projections above $900 million indicate strong underlying legs that could bring the crossing forward into August.A model updated after the third weekend projected a final domestic total between $906.9 million and $981.8 million.
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