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Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold13%$100 paper stake
Polymarket82¢ 84¢
Our position · NO18¢ 16¢
Signal endedJul 24
Forecast updatedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast

A new Claude Opus release by July 31 is unlikely because unverified leaks suggest testing at most, with no official word from Anthropic.

With 14 days remaining and no official Anthropic confirmation, unverified leaks suggest possible testing but not an imminent public Opus launch, making a full qualifying release… Whether Anthropic can complete internal testing and announce general availability within two weeks despite recent promo extensions… Multiple unverified leaks and sightings on Vertex AI and Cursor point to an Opus 5 build in testing, raising near-term release probability. No official announcement by July 17, Fable 5 promotions extended, and available models remain Sonnet 5 and Opus 4.8, indicating internal delays.

Points to NO
  • No official announcement by July 17, Fable 5 promotions extended, and available models remain Sonnet 5 and Opus 4.8, indicating internal delays.
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Multiple unverified leaks and sightings on Vertex AI and Cursor point to an Opus 5 build in testing, raising near-term release probability.
    Evidence

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