Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+92%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Persistent Middle East tanker disruptions keep spot crude elevated near 92.40 dollars, so settling above 92.49 dollars on September 8 is favored.

Front-month WTI crude trades at 92.4038 dollars, requiring a move of less than nine cents, or 0.09%, to clear the 92.49 dollar floor strike at Tuesday's settlement. Ongoing naval interdictions and drone strikes have reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to multi-month lows, creating an acute risk premium that offsets seasonal refining slowdowns. Additionally, OPEC+ confirmed steady production targets for October, limiting near-term supply additions. However, settling above 92.49 dollars remains far from guaranteed because front-month crude has displayed substantial intraday dispersion between sub-90 and 93 dollars, leaving positions vulnerable to sudden de-escalation headlines or swift technical pullbacks during the settlement calculation.

Points to YES

Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic has dropped to multi-month lows following repeated vessel attacks.
An average of 10 commodity ships per day transited the Strait of Hormuz over the 10 days through September 6, down sharply after 27 projectile strikes since July.
OPEC+ policy maintains steady production targets into the autumn, avoiding near-term supply loosening.
Seven participating OPEC+ countries agreed on September 6 to maintain October production requirements at September levels.

Points to NO

Seasonal refinery maintenance and softer Asian crude import figures create demand-side resistance.
China's seaborne crude imports softened to 7.14 million barrels per day in August as global refinery turnaround season approaches.
Elevated intraday volatility has repeatedly pulled spot prices below 90 dollars.
Intraday WTI prices ranged from below $90 to above $93 on September 7, demonstrating wide dispersion ahead of settlement.

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