Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi63¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO37¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Bitcoin’s sharp reversal left it hovering around the cutoff amid fragile momentum, so a price at or above $77,500 is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin has traded repeatedly across the threshold, but its latest cushion is thin after a steep reversal and heavy liquidations. Recent fund inflows and nearby bids provide support, yet the immediate downward momentum makes a qualifying price the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

The sharp retreat from above $81,000 to near the threshold creates strong downward momentum and raises the risk of another break below $77,500.
At 02:55 a.m. on August 29, Bitcoin was $77,417 after falling 3.5% over 24 hours from an intraday high of $81,148.
The selloff following tighter-policy remarks and widespread liquidations suggests fragile positioning that could amplify another downward move before the specified reading.
On August 28, Bitcoin fell from about $81,280 to approximately $76,909 following Kevin Warsh’s remarks, while crypto liquidations approached $488 million.

Points to YES

The latest supplied reading was above the threshold, giving YES a live path if that narrow cushion holds.
At 12:45:40 UTC on August 29, Bitcoin was $77,618, with a 24-hour range of $76,962 to $79,992.
Persistent spot-fund inflows provide underlying demand that could absorb selling and keep Bitcoin above the cutoff.
On August 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $242.3 million in net inflows, their ninth consecutive inflow day, taking August inflows above $3 billion.
Nearby bid liquidity offers a potential floor, increasing the chance that dips around the threshold are bought quickly.
An August 26 liquidity map showed bid support layers around $75,500 to $77,800 and sell-order clusters around $78,180 to $79,700.

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