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Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Quotient's forecast Market price Spread◆ Signal
ResolutionResolved NO
YES payout0¢
NO payout100¢
VenuePolymarket
Conviction at publication
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket
Sep 14 forecast
Lula is favored to win the most votes in the first round, driven by a consistent polling lead, high voter consolidation, and a fragmented opposition, despite a recent statistical tie in one poll and corruption investigations affecting both.
The evidence leans clearly toward Lula winning the most votes in the first round. Multiple recent polls show him leading by 5 to 10 points, with high voter consolidation and a fragmented opposition. While one telephone poll showed a statistical tie, the preponderance of evidence supports Lula's advantage. The forecast reflects the consistency and breadth of Lula's lead, the high level of decided voters, and the potential impact of the corruption investigation on his main rival. Markets currently treat this outcome as highly likely, and the main difference between that view and this forecast is the residual uncertainty from the one poll showing a tighter race.
Points to YES
The most recent and comprehensive polls consistently place Lula ahead, with leads ranging from 5 to 10 points. Voter consolidation is high, with 75-83% of voters decided. The opposition is fragmented, with multiple candidates splitting the anti-Lula vote. While one telephone poll showed a tighter race, the preponderance of evidence supports Lula's advantage.
A BTG/Nexus survey released September 14 showed Lula leading with 42% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 37%.
Multiple polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show Lula with a consistent lead. His support is strong in the Northeast and among lower-income voters. The recent corruption investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro may further weaken his opponent. The high level of decided voters suggests limited room for major shifts.
A Quaest poll from September 10-13 showed Lula at 36% versus Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%.
While one poll shows a statistical tie, the overall trend across multiple surveys is a Lula lead. The high percentage of decided voters (75-83%) suggests that late shifts are unlikely. The corruption investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro could further consolidate support for Lula.
A Datafolha poll from September 8-10 showed Lula with 39% versus Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%, within the margin of error.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.
