US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+127%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO44¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Jul 14 forecast

A formal US announcement ending the Iranian blockade is highly unlikely by August 31 because recent direct strikes on US bases foreclose rapid de-escalation.

Recent direct military engagement and the very fresh reinstatement of the blockade lock both actors into a confrontational posture, heavily suppressing the likelihood of a formal diplomatic resolution by late August.

Points to NO

Kinetic escalation hardens US political posture
Iran claimed attacks on US military bases in Oman and Bahrain
Immediate operational commitment to new blockade
CENTCOM restarted enforcement of blockade on Iranian ports, July 14
Diplomatic void requires lengthy new negotiations
June MoU collapse leaves limited diplomatic off-ramps

Points to YES

Active mediator presence maintains off-ramp
Iranian negotiators arrived in Oman for mediated talks, July 11
Top-level US openness to diplomacy
US executive indicated readiness to continue negotiations despite active strikes

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