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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket84¢ 100¢
Our position · YES84¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast

Astra is demonstrating advanced internal capabilities during comprehensive safety review, so its public release by September 30 is highly likely.

The direct evidence is mixed: Astra appears technically mature, but cybersecurity precautions have paused important work and OpenAI has not published a release date, pricing, or model card. A September release remains highly likely because most of the month is still available, OpenAI’s leadership is publicly discussing Astra’s capabilities, and public access can be announced with little advance notice. The strongest contrary path is an unresolved safety concern that keeps Astra workloads paused through the deadline.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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