Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi38¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Repeated failures to hold $80,000 leave momentum weak, so a September 9 settlement at or above $79,500 is unlikely.

Bitcoin is only 0.79% below the strike, leaving the threshold within reach during a volatile session. It also traded above $82,000 a day earlier, showing ample capacity for a rapid reversal. However, repeated failures to hold $80,000, renewed selling pressure and the latest readings below $79,500 make a qualifying settlement unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin began settlement day below $79,500 and was losing ground.
At 8 a.m. on September 9, Bitcoin traded at $78,510 and was down 0.59% from the previous day.
Repeated rejection around $80,000 has established a nearby ceiling above the strike.
By 03:13 GMT on September 9, Bitcoin had failed to remain above $80,000 and begun another pullback.
Short-term momentum remains pressured by active selling.
On September 8, Bitcoin's one-hour and 15-minute charts showed active selling pressure.

Points to YES

The remaining gap is small enough to close during ordinary Bitcoin volatility.
On September 9, the settlement-basis price was $78,876.86, just 0.79% below $79,500.
Bitcoin has recently demonstrated enough range to move well beyond the strike.
Bitcoin reached a multi-week high of $82,266 on September 8 before being rejected.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.