Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi42¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin has retreated sharply from Friday’s peak, so an August 31 settlement at or above $78,250 is a meaningful underdog.

The settlement-basis price is $78,091.982, only 0.20% below $78,250, so a modest rebound could still produce YES. However, Bitcoin has lost momentum since exceeding $81,000 on August 28, subsequently falling below $77,000 and posting an early August 31 high below the threshold. Strong ETF inflows and the recent broader rally keep the outcome live, but the immediate price trend makes an above-threshold settlement a meaningful underdog.

Points to NO

Bitcoin entered settlement day with sharply negative short-term momentum.
By August 30, Bitcoin had fallen from an August 28 peak above $81,000 to below $77,000.
Early settlement-day trading had not reached the threshold.
Through 4:30 AM UTC on August 31, Bitcoin’s intraday high was $78,169.56, below $78,250.

Points to YES

Bitcoin needs only a modest rebound to exceed the settlement threshold.
On August 31, the settlement-basis price was $78,091.982, just 0.20% below $78,250.
Strong institutional inflows provide underlying buying support despite the pullback.
As of August 31, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded eight consecutive net-inflow sessions totaling around $2.8 billion.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.