Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi65¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES65¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin remains above the threshold after a powerful rally backed by fund inflows and scarce liquid supply, so an August 28 price above $77,500 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final days above the required level after strong upward momentum and substantial spot-fund demand. Limited readily tradable supply could help absorb selling. However, repeated pullbacks from above $80,000, overbought conditions, profit-taking and elevated leverage leave meaningful risk of a sharp reversal. On balance, holding above the threshold is likely.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's current cushion above $77,500 reduces the decline needed for YES and leaves recent support between the market and the threshold.
At 12:19 UTC on August 25, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $78,933.87 after trading between $78,649.40 and $81,265.30 that day.
Strong spot-fund inflows can sustain buying pressure through the remaining window and make a threshold-breaking retreat less likely.
On August 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded $337 million of net inflows after receiving $1.92 billion during their strongest week in ten months.
A limited pool of readily tradable Bitcoin can amplify continued demand and help prices remain above the required level.
An August 25 report said about 60% of circulating Bitcoin had not moved for more than a year while fund demand accelerated.

Points to NO

Repeated rejection near $80,000 and overbought momentum increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin through nearby support before August 28.
On August 25, Bitcoin's momentum gauge was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Heavy profit realization by recent buyers could create enough near-term supply to deepen consolidation into a threshold-threatening pullback.
On August 24, short-term Bitcoin holders realized $1.72 billion in daily profits, the highest level since late November 2024.
Elevated leverage could turn an ordinary reversal into forced selling, creating the main path to a rapid move below $77,500.
An August 25 report said rising leverage and funding rates increased the risk of a sharp liquidation cascade if Bitcoin reversed materially.

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