Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 28?
Signal ended
Entry · YES51¢
PublishedAug 25
Aug 25 forecast
Bitcoin has moved above the threshold on strong spot-fund inflows, so an August 28 price at or above $78,500 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Bitcoin enters the final days above the threshold after a powerful advance supported by large spot-fund inflows and improving trading activity. That cushion makes an above-threshold outcome more likely, but overbought conditions, nearby selling pressure, and recent liquidation-driven reversals leave meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- Trading above $80,000 provides a cushion over the threshold, allowing a moderate pullback while preserving the path to a YES outcome.At 08:23 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price was $80,034.51.
- Strong spot-fund inflows indicate fresh underlying demand that could absorb selling and keep Bitcoin above the threshold through the deadline.U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds drew about $1.9 billion during the week ended August 21, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
- The broad trend remains upward, increasing the chance that buyers defend pullbacks before August 28.Bitcoin closed at $79,271.70 on August 24 after its biggest three-day rally since 2023 and stood above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
Points to NO
- Overbought momentum and concentrated selling interest just above the threshold raise the risk that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin below the required level.On August 25, Bitcoin’s momentum gauge was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
- Reliance on short liquidations makes the rally vulnerable to fading once forced buying subsides, potentially exposing the threshold before the deadline.On August 24, $6.4 billion in leveraged short perpetual-futures positions had been liquidated since August 19, and the cited analysis warned that short squeezes tend to be short-lived.
- Recent liquidation cascades show that leveraged positioning can produce abrupt declines large enough to erase the current cushion quickly.On August 22, Bitcoin fell from about $78,000 toward $77,000 as more than $529 million of positions were liquidated in an hour, mostly longs.
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