Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 8?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin is already about $912 above the $78,500 strike with less than a day remaining, so a settlement at or above $78,500 is likely.

Bitcoin stands near $79,412 with less than a day remaining, giving it a modest but meaningful cushion over $78,500. The qualifying settlement is likely, though meaningful uncertainty remains because recent momentum has weakened and a sharp intraday move could erase that cushion. Continued strength above key daily averages and recent institutional inflows support the price, while repeated selling above $80,000 makes a large upside extension less important than simply holding nearby support.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the final stretch about $912 above the settlement threshold.
On September 8, Bitcoin stood near $79,412 with approximately 18.7 hours remaining before settlement.
The higher-time-frame trend remains intact despite recent weakness.
On September 7, Bitcoin remained above its key daily averages, with no confirmed breakdown in the higher-time-frame uptrend.
Published technical support remains slightly above the settlement strike.
On September 7, Bitcoin's daily support level was identified at $78,795.50, compared with the $78,500 threshold.

Points to NO

Short-term selling pressure could quickly consume the remaining cushion.
On September 7, Bitcoin fell from roughly $80,200-$80,537 to $79,013 before recovering toward $79,500 on lower volume.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.