Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold−28%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 23¢

Our position · YES32¢ → 23¢

Signal endedJul 20

Forecast updatedAug 8

Jul 13 forecast

The US will likely announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31, since Iran's suspension of its commitments gives Washington cause to end the framework.

Iran's MOU suspension and US kinetic escalation strongly favor an abrupt, definitive US diplomatic termination.

Points to YES

Iran suspended MOU commitments.
Iran halted MOU commitments, July 13.
60-day MOU expires August 13.
MOU established 60-day framework, June 14.

Points to NO

US prefers conditional ultimatums.
US issued conditional Saturday deadline, July 10.
US willingness to maintain talks.
US agreed to continue talks despite ceasefire end, July 10.

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