QuotientQuotientQuotient

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake
Polymarket52¢
Our position · NO48¢ 100¢
Signal endedJul 23
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 17 forecast

A new Claude Opus is unlikely to go public by July 22 because credible signals point to a late-July launch at the earliest.

As of July 17 there is no official Opus release since 4.8, credible signals point to late July, and all near-term leaks are unverified, making a public Opus launch in the next… Whether an unverified leak converts into an official, publicly accessible Opus launch with documented access before July 22 despite zero… No official Anthropic announcement, pricing, or public model ID for Opus as of July 17 Market sentiment and leaks point to month-end or late July rather than before July 22

Points to NO
  • No official Anthropic announcement, pricing, or public model ID for Opus as of July 17
    Evidence
  • Market sentiment and leaks point to month-end or late July rather than before July 22
    Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.