US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake

Polymarket18¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO82¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Jul 10 forecast

A final deal is very unlikely by September 30 because Washington has declared the June memorandum dead amid active hostilities.

Active hostilities and public US disavowal of the June MOU make a comprehensive nuclear deal highly improbable by September. The market underestimates the strictness of the linkage and technical benchmark criteria.

Points to NO

Trump explicitly terminated June MOU ceasefire, July 8
Trump announced termination of US-Iran ceasefire agreement, July 8 2026
US executed multiple nights of kinetic strikes in Iran
US forces struck approximately 90 targets inside Iran, July 2026

Points to YES

US negotiators signaled desire to maintain talks despite strikes
US negotiators reportedly signaled desire to continue talks despite strikes, July 2026

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