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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+23%$100 paper stake
Polymarket81¢ 100¢
Our position · YES81¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1

Late-August reports point to an early-September launch, so OpenAI’s public release of Astra by September 30 is highly likely.

The evidence is mixed: Astra remains unreleased, its launch date is unconfirmed, and important workloads were recently paused over security requirements. Still, late-August reports clustered around an early-September launch, parts of Astra’s training and evaluation had already cleared the heightened standards, and most of September remains available for rollout. Astra’s public release by September 30 is therefore highly likely, with a prolonged security hold as the clear failure path.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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