Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+42%$100 paper stake
Polymarket66¢ → 94¢
Our position · YES66¢ → 94¢
Signal endedAug 28
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 21 forecast
With $810.4 million banked and late-August attendance slowing, a domestic gross in the target range by August 31 is likely.
The finalized total has cleared the lower boundary, leaving an overshoot as the main risk. A projected $856 million total through August 23 would leave substantial ground to cover during eight school-affected late-August days. The film’s record pace keeps an overshoot plausible, but slowing weekdays and fewer theaters favor a finish within the target range.
Points to YES
- The lower boundary is already secured, so the film remains in range unless late earnings carry it to the upper cutoff.On August 19, The Numbers’ finalized chart put the film at $810,432,089 domestically after a $6,502,864 Wednesday.
- The central fourth-weekend outlook preserves enough room below $900 million for normal late-August decay to keep the total in range.On August 20, a projection forecast a $40 million fourth weekend and a cumulative domestic total of $856 million through August 23.
- School reopenings should suppress weekday receipts, reducing the film’s ability to collect the remaining amount needed to reach the upper cutoff.An August 16 analysis expected weekday business to shrink dramatically as most U.S. students returned to school by August 24, while weekends remained busy.
Points to NO
- Record-setting accumulation shows unusually durable demand, leaving a credible path to the upper cutoff despite the expected slowdown.On August 18, the film crossed $800 million domestically on its nineteenth day, faster than the previous twenty-three-day benchmark.
- A projected crossing near the end of the run leaves timing risk, because modestly stronger late-August holds could bring $900 million forward to the deadline.An August 18 projection put the film at $848 million to $860 million after its fourth week and $905 million to $915 million around Labor Day.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.