Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold−72%$100 paper stake
Polymarket34¢ → 10¢
Our position · YES34¢ → 10¢
Signal endedJul 22
Forecast updatedJul 22
Jul 15 forecast
US warships will almost certainly transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 because active blockade enforcement requires a naval presence inside the strait.
Intense kinetic operations and blockade enforcement heavily incentivize US naval transits, while political rhetoric regarding strait protection provides a secondary announcement-based pathway to resolution.
Points to YES
- CENTCOM resumed Iranian port blockade operations, July 14U.S. Central Command confirmed operations to block vessels from using Iranian ports officially resumed on July 14.
- US struck Iranian coastal defense capabilities, July 12CENTCOM forces struck Iranian military air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, and drone capabilities.
- President stated US would act as strait guardian, July 13Trump declared on national television that the US will become the guardian of the strait.
Points to NO
- CENTCOM deployed sea and air drones for strikes, July 12US forces used one-way attack aerial drones and sea drones for the first time during recent operations.
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