Will Ethereum be at or above $2,480 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES40¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Sustained fund inflows and reduced exchange supply support demand, so Ethereum at or above $2,480 at the deadline is favored.

Ethereum sits almost exactly on the threshold after a powerful weekly rally. Six consecutive sessions of spot-fund inflows and reduced exchange supply favor renewed buying, but overbought readings, fading intraday momentum and repeated reversals leave substantial downside risk before the deadline.

Points to YES

Persistent spot-fund demand can absorb selling and help keep Ethereum above the threshold through the deadline.
On August 24, US spot Ether funds recorded $115.6 million of net inflows, extending their positive streak to six trading sessions and bringing six-session inflows to about $812.8 million.
The recent breakout and strong weekly advance make another move above the threshold more plausible despite the latest consolidation.
During the week ending August 23, Ether rose 31.3% from below $1,900 to above $2,520 before retreating to just below $2,500.
Lower exchange balances and extensive staking reduce readily tradable supply, allowing continued demand to exert greater upward pressure.
By August 22, exchange-held Ether had fallen about 15% from early June to mid-August, while more than 42 million ETH was staked.

Points to NO

Ethereum's position almost exactly at the threshold leaves little protection against an ordinary short-term decline.
At 16:49:55 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Ether Reference Price Real-Time Index stood at $2,477.23, slightly below $2,480.
Overbought conditions and fading short-term momentum increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Ethereum below the threshold before the fixing time.
On August 25, Ethereum traded around $2,510.47 with daily RSI at 80.39, while hourly momentum was fading and the 15-minute MACD had turned slightly negative.

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