Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold−61%$100 paper stake

Polymarket49¢ → 19¢

Our position · YES49¢ → 19¢

Signal endedJul 24

Forecast updatedJul 29

Jul 17 forecast

Moonshot will likely hold the top Chinese AI spot through late July because kimi-k3 leads Chinese entries on Chatbot Arena with no competitor release documented before then.

Moonshot currently leads visible Chinese entries on Chatbot Arena overall text rankings with kimi-k3 near rank 9, and no competitor release is documented in the 14-day window,… Whether an unobserved Chinese competitor update appears between July 17 and July 31 and scores above Moonshot's ~1486. Visible Arena tables place kimi-k3 and kimi-k2.6 at the top among shown Chinese models with scores ~1486 and ~1461. The 14-day window allows surprise competitor releases and the resolution snapshot may differ from current visible tables.

Points to YES

Visible Arena tables place kimi-k3 and kimi-k2.6 at the top among shown Chinese models with scores ~1486 and ~1461.
Evidence

Points to NO

The 14-day window allows surprise competitor releases and the resolution snapshot may differ from current visible tables.
Evidence

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