Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi42¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

The latest index reading remains below the strike amid weakening demand and lower highs, so Bitcoin settling at or above $77,750 is a meaningful underdog.

The threshold remains within reach, but the latest index reading is below it and short-term demand, fund flows, and price structure have weakened. Recent trading has repeatedly crossed this area, preserving a credible rebound path, while resistance near the threshold and limited time make a qualifying finish the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

Bitcoin starts the final stretch below the $77,750 threshold.
On September 3, the Bitcoin Real-Time Index stood at $77,180.98, below the required level.
The threshold sits inside an immediate resistance zone after a sequence of lower highs.
On September 2, Bitcoin's immediate resistance extended from $77,747 to about $79,250.
Spot demand has weakened as the deadline approaches.
On September 2, Bitcoin's Apparent Demand indicator had turned negative again.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's broader daily trend still leaves room for a rapid rebound.
On September 2, Bitcoin remained above its daily 20-, 50-, and 200-period exponential moving averages.
Recent realized volatility has been wide enough to carry Bitcoin through the threshold.
During the five trading days through September 2, Bitcoin traded between $76,500 and $79,500, spanning the $77,750 threshold.

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