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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ 100¢
Our position · YES76¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 30
Aug 28 forecast

Reports of Fable 5.1 routing suggest rollout infrastructure is already active, so a next Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.

The apparent background routing of users to Fable 5.1 provides the clearest path to a near-term release: deployment may have begun before the formal announcement. Anthropic has previously qualified a safeguarded Fable model as Mythos-class, so broad public access need not involve the more restricted Mythos-branded product. Meaningful uncertainty remains because the routing reports are unverified, official release notes list no successor, and Anthropic has not supplied the designation required by the rules.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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