Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?
Quotient's forecast Market price Spread◆ Signal
ResolutionResolved YES
YES payout100¢
NO payout0¢
VenuePolymarket
Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updated
Aug 28 forecast
Reports of Fable 5.1 routing suggest rollout infrastructure is already active, so a next Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.
The apparent background routing of users to Fable 5.1 provides the clearest path to a near-term release: deployment may have begun before the formal announcement. Anthropic has previously qualified a safeguarded Fable model as Mythos-class, so broad public access need not involve the more restricted Mythos-branded product. Meaningful uncertainty remains because the routing reports are unverified, official release notes list no successor, and Anthropic has not supplied the designation required by the rules.
Points to YES
Apparent Fable 5.1 routing suggests Anthropic may already be deploying the most plausible qualifying successor, shortening the remaining path to public release and official designation.
Anthropic has already used a safeguarded Fable release as the public form of a Mythos-class model, creating a practical route around the access restrictions applied to Mythos-branded systems.
Anthropic had publicly signaled that more capable models were coming within months, making another release during the current window consistent with its stated schedule.
The absence of any official successor listing leaves both public accessibility and the required Mythos-class designation unfinished, increasing the risk that the window closes first.
Anthropic’s confirmed internal successor candidate was not prepared for outside deployment, making it an unlikely near-term route unless release plans have changed.
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Aug 30
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