Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+156%$100 paper stake

Kalshi61¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO39¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Intraday October WTI remained below $92.49 with hours left, so a September 3 settlement above the threshold is unlikely.

The supplied settlement-basis snapshot of $92.4074 sits barely below $92.49, but same-day delayed quotes put October WTI around $91.75 and no higher than $91.80. The prior settlement was $91.01, so the contract still needs a material late-session rise during CME’s brief calculation window. Hormuz disruption and depleted inventories preserve a credible upside spike, while recovering exports and workaround supply routes restrain it. Overall, a September 3 settlement above $92.49 is unlikely.

Points to NO

Same-day October WTI quotations remained below the settlement threshold.
On September 3, October 2026 WTI traded at $91.75 and reached an intraday high of $91.80, both below $92.49.
The previous settlement left October WTI needing a sizable one-day advance.
NYMEX October WTI settled at $91.01 per barrel on September 2, below the $92.49 threshold.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the scope for further oil-price gains.
On September 2, Brown Brothers Harriman strategists said further oil-price upside appeared limited as Persian Gulf exports recovered.

Points to YES

The latest settlement-basis snapshot is extremely close to the threshold.
On September 3, the supplied settlement-basis price was $92.4074, only 0.09% below $92.49.
Severely reduced Hormuz traffic leaves oil exposed to another disruption-driven spike.
Preliminary data showed four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 2, versus a roughly 13-vessel recent average.
A larger-than-expected U.S. inventory draw supports crude prices.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending August 28, exceeding the draw expected in a Reuters poll.

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