Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 26?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi31¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES31¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updatedAug 26

A direct August 26 reference price sits just above the cutoff after strong inflows and momentum, so a qualifying Bitcoin price is favored.

Bitcoin entered August 26 marginally above the required level after a powerful rally supported by exchange-traded fund inflows, lower Treasury yields and forced short covering. That position favors a qualifying price, but the tiny cushion, wide recent trading range and signs of overheating leave substantial room for an abrupt reversal.

Points to YES

A direct real-time reference price was already slightly above the required level, putting Bitcoin on the qualifying side while leaving almost no cushion against ordinary volatility.
At 04:29 GMT on August 26, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Real-Time Index stood at $79,002.88.
Strong recent momentum makes another move above the threshold easier even if Bitcoin briefly falls below it.
Late on August 25, Bitcoin was reported near $80,000 after gaining almost 30% during August.
Renewed exchange-traded fund demand supplies buying pressure that can absorb profit-taking and support a qualifying price.
By August 25, a six-day U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflow streak had reached $2.26 billion, including $338 million on the latest reported day.

Points to NO

The threshold lies well inside Bitcoin's recent daily range, so routine volatility can erase the current advantage before the relevant observation.
On August 25, Bitcoin traded between $77,870.63 and $81,235.03 before closing at $78,564.98.
Extreme short-term momentum readings increase the risk that traders take profits, causing a pullback through the nearby cutoff.
On August 25, Bitcoin's daily relative-strength index reached 82.93, its highest reading since November 2024.

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