Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+16%$100 paper stake

Polymarket86¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES86¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

AfD leads SPD clearly in every recent party poll and in the latest seat projection, so an AfD plurality of Landtag seats is highly likely.

AfD has held first place across the supplied polling, and the latest trend gives it both a clear vote lead and a multi-seat advantage. SPD’s candidate is much stronger in a personal contest, while AfD faces substantial voter resistance. Yet seats follow second votes, where no supplied poll places SPD close enough to overtake AfD. The short remaining campaign limits the time for such a reversal. An AfD seat plurality is highly likely, though a late SPD surge remains the main upset path.

Points to YES

AfD holds a clear lead over SPD in the latest election trend.
On August 31, the weighted election trend placed AfD on 35.9% and SPD on 28.9%.
AfD’s first-place standing is replicated across major polling firms rather than resting on one survey.
A July 9 Infratest dimap poll placed AfD first on 36% and SPD second on 29%.
The latest seat projection converts AfD’s vote lead into the largest Landtag caucus.
On August 31, the election trend projected 30 seats for AfD and 24 for SPD.

Points to NO

SPD’s Manuela Schwesig has a large personal advantage over AfD’s Leif-Erik Holm.
A July 9 survey found 49% would choose Schwesig and 27% would choose Holm in a direct minister-president election.
AfD faces a broad voter-rejection ceiling that leaves room for late consolidation behind SPD.
In the August 4–11 survey, 52% of respondents considered AfD unelectable.

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