Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Recovery is unlikely by September 30 because clearing 80 deployed mines takes 40 to 50 days, a clock reset by the July 8 ceasefire collapse.

The 13% forecast rests on the physical constraints of mine clearance (40-50 days) and the July 8 collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. To achieve a 7-day moving average of 60 by September 30, a durable truce must be signed by mid-August. Insurer risk aversion prevents mainstream shipping from returning prior to verified clearance.