Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Realized · 7-day hold−4%$100 paper stake
Polymarket25¢ → 28¢
Our position · NO75¢ → 72¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 12 forecast
Iran is unlikely to quit the memorandum talks, preferring conditional suspension and blaming the United States over the unconditional termination a withdrawal requires.
Araghchi explicitly tied negotiation commencement to US threat cessation. Iran prefers blaming US violations over formal treaty termination.
Points to NO
- Araghchi conditioned final talks on US threat cessation, July 7Araghchi public statement demanded US honor signature before commencing final deal negotiations
- Araghchi asserted Iranian MOU compliance against US Treasury violation, July 11Araghchi accused US Treasury Secretary of violating MOU Paragraph 9
- Pakistan and Qatar mediated ongoing technical talks, July 10Regional mediators pursued technical-level talks amid US-Iran kinetic escalation
Points to YES
- Hardline MP Nabavian criticized MOU negotiations as deceptive, July 11Nabavian stated negotiations historically resulted in broken promises and enemy benefits
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