Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Iran will almost certainly keep commercial airspace open through July 31 because no broad NOTAM has appeared and the ceasefire remains largely intact.

Iran’s civil aviation authority has not issued a broad, generally applicable airspace suspension since the conflict’s peak, and the available reports through July 20 show only localized, temporary closures for specific events in Tehran and Mashhad. The European agency advisory and other conflict-zone warnings remain directed at airlines rather than amounting to an Iranian government suspension. With only 11 days remaining in the resolution window, the absence of any pending NOTAM or credible reporting of an imminent broad closure is decisive. The ceasefire, though fragile, has held without the kind of direct sustained strikes that historically preceded nationwide Iranian airspace shutdowns in February and June. A sudden escalation cannot be ruled out entirely, but it would need to emerge and reach the threshold of forcing a civil aviation NOTAM almost immediately. The most likely path is continued openness, possibly with brief localized adjustments, and the window closes without a qualifying event.