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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ 100¢
Our position · YES62¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast

Despite visible evidence leaning against release, reported testing and staging clues preserve a sudden-launch path, so Anthropic’s next Mythos-class release by September 2 is favored.

The public record currently leans against a timely launch: Anthropic has not listed Fable 5.1, an expected release date passed, and a potentially relevant internal model lacked external-release plans. Even so, limited-account testing and unusual identifier behavior create a plausible little-notice release path, making a qualifying launch more likely than a miss. With only the final day remaining, continued silence would quickly shift the balance toward no release.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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