Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 6 forecast

The AfD leads both fresh state polls despite the SPD’s late surge, so an SPD plurality of Landtag seats is unlikely.

The AfD leads both recent state polls, including one showing a clear advantage. The SPD has nevertheless closed sharply, Manuela Schwesig holds a large leadership-preference advantage, and the representation threshold could complicate seat allocation. Those counterweights leave an SPD plurality of Landtag seats unlikely.

Points to NO

The freshest state poll still places the SPD behind the AfD.
On September 3, an Infratest dimap poll put the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%.
Another recent poll shows a substantially wider AfD lead.
A Forsa poll published September 2 put the AfD at 37% and the SPD at 28%.

Points to YES

The SPD has gained steadily during the year while AfD support has remained broadly flat.
By September 3, Infratest dimap’s polling series showed the SPD rising from 25% in January to 32% in September, while the AfD moved from 35% to 35%.
Manuela Schwesig retains a large personal advantage over the AfD challenger.
On September 3, 60% selected Schwesig in a direct-choice question for head of government, compared with 25% for Leif-Erik Holm.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.