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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake
Polymarket78¢ 100¢
Our position · YES78¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 30
Aug 29 forecast

Repeated reports of background routing to newer Fable checkpoints suggest launch preparation, so a new publicly accessible Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.

Several recent reports describe users being routed toward unreleased Fable checkpoints, while early-access identifiers suggest active launch preparation rather than distant experimentation. Anthropic also previously said more capable models were coming within months. The main uncertainty is that these reports remain unofficial, recent suggested launch dates have passed, and Anthropic’s current documentation still names no successor. Safety controls could delay broad access, but a safeguarded Fable release offers a plausible route to public availability, making release by the deadline likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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