Will above 40000 jobs be added in September 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi

Oct 1 forecast

Most major estimates put September payroll growth above 40,000, so a reported gain exceeding the threshold is likely.

The evidence mostly points to a September gain above 40,000. Major estimates remain above the threshold, while private payroll measures and low jobless claims indicate continued hiring. Falling postings, weak hiring plans, two recent sub-threshold months, and temporary contributors to August’s surge leave meaningful downside risk and could drive sharp pre-release reassessment.

Points to YES

Economists broadly expect September payroll growth to clear 40,000.
On September 28, economists surveyed by Reuters expected total nonfarm payrolls to increase by 84,000 in September.
Private payroll data indicate September hiring remained above the threshold.
On September 30, ADP reported that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 jobs in September.
An alternative employment measure also places September job growth above 40,000.
On October 1, Revelio Labs reported that the U.S. economy added 56,900 jobs in September.

Points to NO

Recent official payroll growth has twice fallen below the threshold.
On September 4, official revisions showed payroll gains of 31,000 in June and 21,000 in July.
August’s strongest sector contributions appear unlikely to repeat.
On September 29, CEPR assessed that unusually large August gains in local government education and restaurants were unlikely to recur in September.
Forward-looking labor demand weakened during September.
On October 1, Revelio Labs reported that active job postings declined 1.8% and hiring rates fell across most tracked sectors in September.

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