Will Bitcoin be at or above $76,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin trades above the threshold with strong fund inflows behind its rally, so a price of at least $76,500 on August 28 is likely.

The threshold is below Bitcoin’s latest price and its identified near-term support area. Strong spot-fund inflows and broad trading activity support the rally, but overbought conditions, resistance near $80,000 and recent liquidation-driven swings leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s current cushion above $76,500 makes a threshold breach less likely unless the pullback deepens substantially.
At 12:37:50 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price was $78,933.67.
Heavy spot-Bitcoin fund inflows provide underlying demand that could absorb profit-taking and keep the price above the threshold.
On August 25, the 13 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds were reported to have received $1.92 billion during the prior week and another $337 million that day.
Elevated trading participation makes the advance more resilient than a thin-volume spike and favors continued trading above $76,500.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume was reported at $54.52 billion, 18% above its seven-day average.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and concentrated selling pressure near recent prices increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin back toward the threshold.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s momentum indicator was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Recent liquidation-driven volatility shows that Bitcoin can cross below the threshold quickly if leveraged selling accelerates.
On August 23, Bitcoin fell below $76,000 as roughly $100 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within about an hour.

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