Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket30¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Anthropic is still restricting advanced Mythos access and has announced no successor, so a generally available Mythos-class release by the deadline is unlikely.

Anthropic’s latest official communication emphasizes controlled access to existing Mythos capabilities rather than a new public model. Reports of Fable 5.1 testing keep a surprise release possible, but they remain unconfirmed and conflict with indications that observed candidates may belong to other model classes. Anthropic’s safety-driven restrictions and incomplete release preparations for stronger internal models further weigh against a qualifying launch during the short remaining window.

Points to NO

Anthropic’s newest official update points to controlled expansion of existing Mythos capabilities, making an abrupt public successor launch less plausible.
On August 27, Anthropic said its new Mythos-class life-sciences program had enrolled only its first participants and that it expected to expand access later, without announcing a new generally available model.
The strongest reported internal successor lacks both an external-release plan and completed evaluations, reducing the chance that it can become a qualifying public product immediately.
A report published August 25 said Anthropic’s more capable internal Model 2 had no current external-release plan and had not completed the normal evaluation suite for release.
The most visible early-access candidates may be ordinary Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku updates rather than a qualifying Mythos-class successor.
On August 23, an attributed report said the observed Marshmallow and Melon models suggested an imminent release but were probably Opus and possibly Haiku updates rather than a Fable-class model.

Points to YES

Reported Fable 5.1 routing and launch preparation leave a credible path to a last-minute qualifying rollout.
On August 27, an attributed report said Fable 5.1 might already be routing to some web users and that Anthropic appeared to be preparing a launch, while explicitly cautioning that the claims were unconfirmed.

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