Kyrian Jacquet won67 vs. Luciano Darderi36

ATPFinal24h volume $463k

Market price

Oct 1 forecast

Darderi combines a large ranking advantage with a strong Tokyo opener, so a Darderi victory over Jacquet is favored.

Darderi enters with the stronger ranking and backed it up by defeating Casper Ruud with dominant first-serve numbers. Jacquet is a dangerous opponent after routing Holger Rune and compiling the better hard-court record this season, but Darderi’s serving power and broader overall results make him the more likely winner.

Points to YES

Darderi holds a substantial ranking advantage over Jacquet.
On October 1, Darderi was ranked No. 19 and Jacquet was ranked No. 86.
Darderi’s serve was highly effective in his opening Tokyo victory.
On October 1, Darderi hit 13 aces and won 86% of his first-serve points while defeating Casper Ruud.

Points to NO

Jacquet arrives in exceptional serving form after overwhelming Holger Rune.
On October 1, Jacquet defeated Rune 6-3, 6-1, won all 19 first-serve points, and did not face a break point.
Jacquet has produced the stronger hard-court record this season.
On October 1, Jacquet entered at 16-7 on hard courts in 2026, compared with Darderi’s 12-9 record.
Jacquet should enter fresher after a much shorter opening match.
On October 1, Jacquet’s opening Tokyo match lasted 54 minutes, while Darderi’s lasted one hour and 48 minutes.

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