Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi47¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO53¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin sits just below the strike after repeated $80,000 rejections, so an August 31 settlement at or above $78,750 is a meaningful underdog.

The settlement-basis price is $78,276.9204, only 0.60% below the strike, leaving the threshold reachable within hours. However, repeated failures near $80,000, a recent close below $78,000, and weakening daily fund flows favor a below-threshold settlement. A conflicting delayed index print near $97,486 is not corroborated by most same-day price records. The evidence therefore leans against YES, although the narrow price gap and Bitcoin’s intraday volatility keep an above-threshold settlement live.

Points to NO

Bitcoin began August 31 below both the strike and $78,000.
At 01:37:05 on August 31, Bitcoin was trading at $77,943.10.
Repeated rejection near $80,000 shows sellers remain active just above the strike.
On August 30, an assessment reported that $80,000 had rejected Bitcoin twice in late August.
The latest daily ETF flow weakened after a preceding inflow streak.
Bitcoin funds recorded a $201 million net outflow on August 28, ending the preceding inflow streak.

Points to YES

Recent intraday trading above the strike shows the required rebound is attainable.
Bitcoin reached $78,960 intraday on August 30 and traded at $78,650 later that morning.

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