Will BTC trimmed mean be below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+133%$100 paper stake

Kalshi57¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO43¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

BTC trades 7.56% above the strike after rebounding, so a sub-$75,000 trimmed mean by September 30 is less likely than not.

At roughly $81,132, BTC has a meaningful cushion above the threshold, while recent ETF inflows and broad technical strength support the rebound. The cumulative trimming rule also limits the effect of a brief downward spike. However, weak fresh demand and substantial profit-taking leave room for a sustained pullback, making a sub-$75,000 trimmed mean a real possibility even though remaining above the threshold is more likely.

Points to NO

BTC's current price leaves a meaningful cushion above $75,000, making sustained weakness necessary to pull down the cumulative trimmed mean.
At 9:58 a.m. on September 4, Gemini listed one BTC at $81,140.07.
Renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide buying support after the recent rally.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $730 million in net inflows on September 3.
BTC remains above its major trend benchmarks, reinforcing the case that the rebound can hold.
On September 3, Bitcoin traded above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages.

Points to YES

The September rally relied heavily on short covering rather than durable new buying, leaving it vulnerable to reversal.
On September 3, CryptoQuant assessed that the rally was driven largely by short-position closures rather than new long positions.
Heavy profit realization creates a supply overhang that could deepen any renewed decline.
Bitcoin holders realized about 110,000 BTC in net profits from August 19 through September 3, according to CryptoQuant.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.