Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
Signal ended
Entry · YES62¢
PublishedAug 31
Aug 31 forecast
October WTI is already above $84.99 as attacks threaten Hormuz shipping, so an above-threshold September 1 settlement is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
At 85.5255, October WTI has a modest cushion above the $84.99 threshold. Fresh military escalation and severely constrained Hormuz traffic support that cushion, while recovering exports, expanding production and Friday’s $83.40 settlement leave meaningful downside risk. An above-threshold settlement is likely, but a reversal of the latest conflict-driven jump could still produce NO.
Points to YES
- October WTI entered the final trading stretch above the settlement threshold.At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October contract traded at $86.50 after ranging from $84.11 to $86.58.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks are adding an immediate geopolitical premium to crude.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against regional U.S. assets.
- Hormuz shipping remains severely constrained, preserving supply-disruption pressure.Commodity-ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five per day over the August 29–30 weekend.
Points to NO
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the scope for crude’s conflict-driven rise.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of prewar levels as more vessels crossed Hormuz.
- The contract was below the threshold immediately before the latest geopolitical jump.The October WTI contract settled at $83.40 on August 28, down $0.13 for the day.
- Additional producer supply creates background downward pressure on crude.OPEC+ approved a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September 2026.
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