Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+48%$100 paper stake

Polymarket37¢ → 7¢

Our position · NO63¢ → 93¢

Signal endedJul 26

Forecast updatedJul 26

Jul 19 forecast

Iran is very unlikely to close its airspace fully by July 31 because the airspace stands open as of July 19 with no closure notice pending.

Iranian airspace has been continuously open since mid-April 2026, with airports resumed and specialist assessments confirming open FIR status as of July 15-19 (E1, E2, E4, E8). Although US-Iran conflict continues with strikes reported July 18 (E5, E7), these have not triggered a defensive airspace closure, suggesting Iranian authorities are not defaulting to general FIR shutdowns during kinetic episodes. The remaining 12-day window is too short for a gradual escalation to materialize, and no NOTAM or official signal is present. Resolved similar cases—especially the June 25-July 15 window—mostly resolved negatively, reinforcing the base-rate expectation. The forecast assigns ~88% to no closure, ~6% to partial/non-qualifying actions, ~5% to a sudden general closure, and ~1% residual, yielding approximately 5.5% for YES.

Points to NO

Airspace has remained open since April reopening with no subsequent general closure reported.
Evidence
Recent US strikes and Hormuz tensions through July 18 did not trigger any airspace closure.
Evidence
Only 12 days remain until resolution, with no pending signals or escalation trajectory visible.

Points to YES

Conflict remains active and Iran has previously used airspace closures defensively; a sudden trigger remains physically possible.
Evidence

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