US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket78¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updatedAug 30

Aug 28 forecast

Major combat has remained paused while Washington shifts toward economic pressure, so the U.S. ceasefire against Iran is likely to continue through September.

The ceasefire is likely to hold because weeks of maritime attacks and unresolved disputes have not prompted renewed U.S. strikes, while Washington has increasingly favored economic and naval pressure. The absence of direct negotiations, continued blockade operations and threats from both sides leave meaningful escalation risk, especially if an Iranian action inflicts serious U.S. losses.

Points to YES

Weeks without major combat, combined with Washington’s shift toward economic pressure, makes continued restraint more likely than a renewed U.S. strike campaign.
On August 27, major U.S.-Iran combat operations had been paused for weeks while the White House focused on economic pressure.
Washington has repeatedly absorbed maritime attacks without striking Iran, indicating a high threshold for military retaliation that supports the ceasefire.
A report on August 20 said 11 commercial vessels had been hit since the last reported U.S. strike on July 29, without an announced U.S. retaliatory operation.
The administration’s current preference for economic and maritime pressure offers alternatives to direct attacks on Iran, reducing the need for qualifying strikes.
On August 27, the administration was reported to be relying more on economic pressure than additional strikes, partly as stocks of key weapons diminished.

Points to NO

The lack of negotiations and continued U.S. blockade leave the underlying conflict unresolved, preserving a path from another confrontation to renewed strikes.
On August 27, the White House said no U.S.-Iran negotiations were under way, all options remained available and the naval blockade continued.
Iranian threats to attack U.S. interests if pressure continues increase the chance of a provocation serious enough to trigger direct U.S. retaliation.
On August 27, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that Iran would attack U.S. military and economic interests if Washington initiated further hostile action.

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