Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Aug 30?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi43¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO57¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin is below the threshold after rejecting higher levels, so a $78,250-or-higher August 30 settlement is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin sits only 0.30% below $78,250, and its same-day range has already crossed the threshold, keeping the outcome live. However, repeated readings below the cutoff, rejection above $81,000, recent ETF outflows, and weekend-thinned institutional activity make a qualifying settlement the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

Repeated same-day readings place Bitcoin below the required threshold.
At 4:09 a.m. on August 30, Coinbase quoted Bitcoin at $78,184.04, below $78,250.
The latest rally was rejected forcefully, leaving weak short-term momentum.
On August 28, Bitcoin peaked at $81,455 before falling to $76,877.
Fresh institutional demand weakened immediately before the settlement window.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.8 million in net outflows on August 28, ending nine consecutive inflow sessions.

Points to YES

The threshold is within Bitcoin’s demonstrated same-day trading range.
On August 30, Coinbase reported a 24-hour high of $78,334.44, above $78,250.

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