Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for August 2026 be above 334.750?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi

Sep 8 forecast

The threshold requires only a modest rise from July and current forecasts expect a firmer gain, so August CPI-U above 334.750 is highly likely.

July’s unadjusted index was 333.918, leaving a relatively small increase needed to exceed 334.750. Current forecasts consistently anticipate firmer August headline inflation, with rebounding energy prices providing the clearest support. July’s flat unadjusted reading and softer core-goods expectations remain meaningful risks, but August CPI-U above the threshold is highly likely.

Points to YES

The threshold sits only about one-quarter percent above July’s unadjusted index.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the July 2026 unadjusted all-items CPI-U at 333.918.
The latest inflation tracking estimate points to an August gain sufficient to clear the threshold.
On September 8, the Cleveland Fed estimated August month-over-month CPI inflation at 0.36 percent.
Reaccelerating energy prices are expected to lift August headline inflation.
On September 4, RBC Economics expected August energy-price reacceleration to drive a 0.4 percent monthly headline CPI increase.

Points to NO

July showed no unadjusted monthly increase, demonstrating that the index can undershoot its adjusted gain.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the all-items CPI-U was unchanged in July before seasonal adjustment.
Softer core-goods inflation could offset part of the expected energy-driven increase.
On September 7, CIBC expected softer August core-goods inflation as recreation prices normalized and medical-care commodities continued declining.

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