Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+48%$100 paper stake
Polymarket41¢ → 13¢
Our position · NO59¢ → 87¢
Signal endedJul 6
Forecast updatedJul 5
Jun 29 forecast
Strait of Hormuz traffic will likely stay below the 60-ship threshold through July 31 because slow mine clearance and wary maritime insurers bottleneck transits.
Physical clearance of 80 naval mines requires 40-50 days, pushing completion into August. Maritime insurers will block the unescorted throughput required to reach 60 transits per day until full clearance is certified.
Points to NO
- Physical clearance requires 40-50 daysIndustry experts estimated safe mine clearance requires 40-50 days, June 25
- 80 active naval mines constrain flowIMO estimated 80 naval mines remain in Strait of Hormuz, June 29
Points to YES
- 500-ship backlog creates massive commercial pressureOver 500 ships remain backlogged waiting to transit, June 25
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