Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,750 on Sep 6?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi50¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES50¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 6

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Bitcoin is currently above the threshold with hours remaining, so a September 6 settlement at or above $79,750 is favored.

Bitcoin is currently around $79,898, roughly $148 above the threshold with less than a day remaining. That gives an above-threshold settlement the immediate edge, but recent trading has repeatedly crossed $79,750 and quickly reversed moves above $80,000. The narrow cushion and elevated volatility leave substantial risk in both directions, making a qualifying settlement favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is trading just above the settlement threshold.
On September 6, a current market snapshot placed Bitcoin at $80,047, above the $79,750 threshold.
Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide underlying demand support.
On September 6, weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were reported at $987 million, extending three-week inflows to $3.8 billion.

Points to NO

Same-day trading has already crossed below the threshold, exposing the narrow price cushion.
On September 6, Bitcoin traded between $79,472.27 and $80,124.97, spanning the $79,750 threshold.
Bitcoin has struggled to retain rallies above $80,000.
On September 5, Bitcoin traded at $79,464 after failing to retain an intraday move above $82,000.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.