US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold−14%$100 paper stake
Polymarket17¢ → 28¢
Our position · NO83¢ → 72¢
Signal endedJul 25
Forecast updatedJul 31
Jul 18 forecast
No US-Iran ceasefire can be completed by July 31 because confirmed US strikes through July 18 leave too few days for the required 14-day halt.
The resolution arithmetic is determinative: strikes documented through Jul 18 push any potential 14-day completion past Jul 31. The current operational tempo (CENTCOM nightly strikes, specific Jul 17 impacts), lack of diplomatic halt signals, and applicable historical conflict persistence all point to No. There is no credible pathway for the required window to have started early enough and remained intact.
Points to NO
- Confirmed US strikes on Jul 16-18 (E1, E2, E4) eliminate the necessary start date for a 14-day window ending by Jul 31.Evidence
- CENTCOM describes sustained nightly operations, indicating institutional momentum rather than imminent cessation.Evidence
- Only 13 days remain, and the window requires a backward-looking 14-day stretch; the timeline is structurally closed.Evidence
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