Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+104%$100 paper stake

Kalshi49¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES49¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updatedSep 3

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin’s latest settlement-basis reading is barely above $81,000, so a September 3 settlement at or above the threshold is favored.

The latest settlement-basis price is $81,021.24, putting Bitcoin narrowly on the qualifying side. Later venue readings around $81,230 support that rebound, but earlier September 3 readings near $77,000–$78,000 show how quickly conditions changed. The cushion is less than 0.03%, and heavy derivatives activity increases the risk of another abrupt move before settlement. On balance, an at-or-above-$81,000 settlement is favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently just above the $81,000 settlement threshold, directly supporting a qualifying print.
On September 3, the settlement-basis current price was $81,021.24, less than 0.03% above the strike.
Bitcoin’s sharp late-day rebound has carried multiple venue readings above the threshold.
On September 3, Kraken displayed Bitcoin at $81,232 after a 5.12% increase over the preceding 24 hours.

Points to NO

Bitcoin traded well below $81,000 earlier the same day, demonstrating substantial intraday reversal risk.
At 10:47 on September 3, Bitcoin was trading near $77,900.
Dense holder supply around and above the threshold could generate selling pressure into settlement.
On September 3, approximately 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was concentrated around $80,000 to $82,000.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.