Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold−30%$100 paper stake
Polymarket50¢ → 35¢
Our position · YES50¢ → 35¢
Signal endedJul 13
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 6 forecast
Russia will very likely enter Vasylivka by July 31 because its forces already claim the village's capture and are staging assaults from it.
Stale market price misses July 4 MoD capture claims and active staging toward Myrne; 25-day window heavily favors eventual ISW visual verification.
Points to YES
- Russian forces using Vasylivka to attack MyrneTactical reports indicate Russian units staging forward assaults toward Myrne from Vasylivka, July 6 2026
- Russian Defense Ministry claimed full capture of VasylivkaRussian Defense Ministry announced full capture of Vasylivka, July 4 2026
Points to NO
- ISW pending visual confirmation of captureISW explicitly marked Russian capture claims for Vasylivka as unverified, July 5 2026
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