Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+9%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 37¢
Our position · NO58¢ → 63¢
Signal endedJul 20
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 13 forecast
Iran is very unlikely to enforce Hormuz transit fees by August 31 because massive US strikes have degraded the coastal assets needed to collect them.
US strikes degraded enforcement assets; PGSA halted operations; Omani talks exclude mandatory fees.
Points to NO
- PGSA halted transit permit operationsPGSA explicitly suspended transit permit processing citing unfeasible conditions.
- US strikes degraded coastal enforcementUS forces struck 140 Iranian military targets.
- Omani proposal omits mandatory feesOmani diplomatic framework excludes transit fees for Northern Corridor.
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